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Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season
Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate Retired Gonna add this section as the 40th Session of the Hurricane Committee is starting tomorrow by EST time (today by UTC). We might probably get our retired names by Thursday-Saturday and the replacement names. Nevertheless, I'm making my final call, and I'm sure you all can agree, that Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be retired and Nate most likely. Ophelia also has a decent chance to go, but I doubt it. --'Roy25' 00:02, April 9, 2018 (UTC) : Seeing as how the 40th session of the RA IV hurricane meeting is going to announce the retirees of 2017 later this week, I've archived the (extremely long) sections we had above on retirement predictions and replacement names from last year's season. Any further speculation on what names will be retired from last season or their replacements can be done here in this section. But since we still have 4 more TCR's to go for the NHC's site, we won't archive the post-season changes section just yet. Ryan1000 01:31, April 9, 2018 (UTC) ::Well, look at the Costa Rica report from the WMO, it says that Nate had caused US$562 million in loses, including economic loses, much higher than before, which was US$185 million. Might as well say Nate already has a much higher chance of retirement. --'Roy25' 01:49, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :::Like Ryan's, my projection from months ago at the conclusion of the season on 'Retirements at a Glance' was that Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate would be our retirees for this year. If 4 names are retired, it will be the most names retired from a naming list since 2005. I will make the final call that the above four names will be the names that will be removed, but Nate is definitely the wild card. However, I would be genuinely surprised if Ophelia was retired. The Costa Rica WMO report is pretty damning for a case to make for the retirement of Nate but there is still about a 25% chance that it's not retired for whatever reason. It'll be pretty difificult for me to get my replacement name projections on point, but the ones I selected a while ago were Hunter, Ivy, Megan, ''and ''Noah'. ''Bring on the excitement of this week! Owen 02:11, April 9, 2018 (UTC)'' ::::I also projected that those would be the names that would be retired. I used to also have Ophelia as a 5th candidate before we had to decrease its chance because of the lowering of damage estimates. I predict the replacements will be Henley, Ivy, Maggie, and Noah respectively. Can't wait for the final decision! ~ Steve Talk Page 05:44, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :::::I saw the Costa Rica report from Nate and not only are there a lot of images of roads and bridges being washed out, but there was a lot of flooding in the country and if their report on Nate's damage is accurate, then that's almost 3 times what Otto did, not to mention 3 more fatalities than Otto. Nate certainly a high chance of being retired if Otto went as well. Ryan1000 11:13, April 9, 2018 (UTC) ::::::My final calls for retirements are Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate and I predict for these four to be replaced by Henley, Ivy, Monica/Monika and Neil. No offense, but I can't see the name Noah being used in list III, as IMO it would look out of place. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:50, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :::::::Same here: Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate are definitely going. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:42, April 9, 2018 (UTC) Just in case if you've missed what I've written (since it got archived), here is what one S2K user wrote: "This is a good extract of what a user originating from Australia said on site Storm2K: ---- "here are my honest opinions on how the replacement names might be chosen: harvey, irma and maria will most likely be removed. nate has a 50/50 chance of being removed. the atlantic naming lists, believe it or not, seem to have a theme going on per list. the people in charge may not realise it when choosing names but there definitely is a pattern. based on previous replacement names per list, i can detect the following themes per list: list 1: old-fashioned, nicknamey and american-sounding. most sound middle-aged or older. very few names of a non-english origin are on that naming list (e.g. odette). list 2: germanic-sounding, nicknamey and again, middle-aged sounding. the english-language names sound rather britishy rather than american though, unlike list 2. again, few latin-origin names are on that list (e.g. gaston). list 3: quirky but old-fashioned. these names have authenticity and character despite being on the old-fashioned side. most sound like a bunch of american 1970s primary schoolchildren. a good mix of english, germanic and latin-based names, with two names even passing for asian origin (despite one being widely used in the english language). list 4: a little dowdy and old-fashioned. have grandparent or middle-aged mumsy/daddy sounding names. some latin-based names (e.g. ernesto) seem to liven the list up a little bit. list 5: euro-chic, fashion-forward and trendy. mostly consisting of bold, continental european-origin names. the english names sound more british/irish than american (despite some, e.g. barry, karen, being a little bit on the middle-aged side). many french/italian/hispanic names occupy this naming list, more so than any other naming list. most "edgy" or "bizarre" name replacements are usually saved for this naming list. list 6: old-fashioned. also, america will most likely head harvey's retirement case. they will do the same with maria on behalf of puerto rico. for irma, i believe the bct, netherlands or france will head this case but i will not be surprised to see the us head it. costa rica will likely head nate's case should he be up for retirement. the us is known for using middle-aged-sounding/old-fashioned names to replace retired names. other countries seem to go a little bit more fashion-forward. especially when they keep pushing for ivy/ina to replace an "i" female storm name since 2003. they might have to keep the percieved "ethnicity" of the name, but they might bend the rules this year. usually, english, french, spanish and even dutch-language names are allowed, but there have been cases of eastern-european (e.g. ivan, igor) and scandinavian (e.g. ingrid) names in use. however the names mentioned have all been retired and replaced with english-language names (ian and imelda). harvey is english, irma is germanic (in this case, dutch) and maria can be percieved as any ethnicity mentioned but french. it is likely that harvey will be replaced with another old-fashioned, english-language name, irma could either be replaced with a contentinal or another old-fashioned english name (depending on which country heads irma's retirement) and maria can be absolutely anything. they might keep to the theme of the list however. i do believe, however, that irma's replacement name will be continental-sounding as they are running out of replacement names for "i" names. based on the following information i have given above, i predict these will be the names to replace the retired names: harvey: horatio, harry, hank, harold irma: ivy, imogen, isa, ilse, isla, inge, ivonne, imke maria: marissa, megan, molly, minerva, minnie, millie, marisol, margaret, maggie, marge bolded names are the most likely replacement names. names such as mckenzie, makayla and mckenna will probably be saved for list 5." ---- I strongly agree with what this user had written on the site. It is a very insightful comment on how storm names might be chosen without the hurricane centre even realizing it. I also think Monica/Monika might be a possible replacement for Maria. Another user had placed these as possible replacement names: ---- "Harry/Hal Iva/Inna Megan/Mikayla Neil/Nelson" ---- "Harvey: Harold, Hank, Herbert Irma: Ilsa, Ilene, Isa Maria: Magda, Monica, Miranda Nate: Nelson, Neil, Noah" ---- Overall it looks like the hurricane centre will most likely go with an old-fashioned choice. I really cannot see a Hurricane Mackenzie/Mckenna unless it is being used on either the same naming list as Andrea, Gabrielle, Humberto and Lorenzo (therefore replacing Melissa) or for an EPAC naming list among the likes of "trendy" names such as Amanda, Lane, Xavier, Iselle and Darby. I also think the hurricane centre won't use Megan for a replacement name unless it's going to replace Melissa. I strongly believe that the hurricane centre should have more updated names rather than more old-fashioned ones, but I think it should be a 50/50 mix unlike the 90/10 (in favour of 50+ names) we have now. I mean, I personally would prefer if more "out-there" and "characterful" names were chosen but becase the US will most likely head the retirements, just like what the Australian person said, I anticipate old-fashioned names such as Harry replacing Harvey, etc. However, they could go continental for Irma, since that name is of German origin and could possibly pass for Dutch (as Holland, on behalf of St Maarten, might likely ask for retirement). However I don't think this would happen; the hurricane centre is far more likely to use continental replacement names for list 5 more than any other list, and Maria will be deemed English. If other nations headed the retirements we would see more up-to-date names which I don't think will happen. I think the final names will be Harry, Imogen/Ivy, Minnie/Millie. If Nate is to be removed, then I'd anticipate Noah replacing Nate which too is rather old-fashioned." To respond to Nutfield, I actually agree that Noah might look out-of-place in list 3. Why? The names are very embellished and lean towards the old-fashioned side. Don't get me wrong; where I'm from, Noah is a very elderly name, but in the US, Noahs have an average year of birth of 2005 according to this link so, therefore, might be better in perhaps list 1 where a lot of nicknamey, short names are located (list 5 is saved for somewhat extravagant-sounding, Continental names judging from replacement names only). I do now see Nate being retired. In response to Steve, I quite like the name Henley! However I only see it being a replacement for Humberto (average year of birth 1990) and not Harvey (average year of birth 1951) due to the old-fashioned, classic nature of list 3, sadly (in comparison with the bold, daring nature, irrespective of age of name, of list 5). Henley to me sounds like a rather bold name. The US always seems to like oldish names (Henley has an average year of birth of 2009 in the US). Therefore I see the H replacement name being Harry (average year of birth of 1952). Most of the youngest-sounding replacement names seem to either go to the EPAC or list 5 (some cases, e.g. Dorian, with an average year of birth of 1998). There are, of course, exceptions, so take what I say with a grain of salt. ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 15:33, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :Well, that US$562 million in damages caused by Nate in Costa Rica has been confirmed. Total damage by Nate is around US$700 million, nearly a billion dollars. Nate is now almost certain to go. --'Roy25' 16:15, April 9, 2018 (UTC) Ditto what Roy25 said. Also do you agree with what I said? ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 16:25, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :Sigh, Nate never exceeded cat-1 intensity on neither of the 3 times it was used, just like Noel. However, we do have the name “Nathan” in the Australian region. Xyklone (talk) 17:07, April 9, 2018 (UTC) ::Rarah, I had replied to the same post before it was archived. I said it's an interesting point. You caan look at my post, I'm not gonna re-type it though as I'm in school right now in my break. --'Roy25' 17:55, April 9, 2018 (UTC) --HurricaneAlpha96 (talk) 19:48, April 9, 2018 (UTC)Odds are the replacement names will come out of left field, like the general trend has been since 2004. Hence I predict Hercules, Isla, Magdalena, and Nero. :I actually thought about Maleficent as Maria's replacement, considering we had one Disney-themed name (Elsa). Andros 1337 (talk) 19:51, April 9, 2018 (UTC) : --HurricaneAlpha96 (talk) 20:03, April 9, 2018 (UTC)Come to think of it, we could use some intimidating names. People are more likely to run from a Hurricane named Maleficient than Macy. The other three are flexible but I’m locking in Hercules as my pick for Harvey’s replacement. It’s so left field and would fit in with the rest of the replacements since 2004. Most of them anyway. The new damage estimates now give Nate an even bigger chance of being retired. I still say about 75% chance though. Because, although worse than Otto, it still has a chance at dodging retirement, but that’s becoming more and more unlikely. As for Harvey, Irma, and Maria? For those three, the only question is what names will replace them, since there is absolutely no chance that they’ll be used again. We’ll just have to wait and see. Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:54, April 9, 2018 (UTC) Not gonna lie, I'll be quite pissed if Nate gets snubbed, since Otto wasn't as bad for Costa Rica and got retired. Send Help Please (talk) 22:23, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :Agreed, now with the damage near a billion in USD, nearly half of that in Costa Rica alone, there shouldn't be a reason why Nate wouldn't be retired. But that's Costa Rica and WMO's decision. --'Roy25' 22:39, April 9, 2018 (UTC) ::I'd say that all four names are likely to go. My picks right now are Harold/Hank, Ivy/Inga, Margot, and Neville/Neil/Noah for the replacements of the names. Also, Nate caused 282 billion colones in damages to Costa Rica, which is three times as much as Otto. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 23:29, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :::My picks are Henry/Hank/Homer, Ivy/Isabella, Molly/Marge, and Niko. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:18, April 10, 2018 (UTC) ::::The WMO probably won’t choose Henry to replace Harvey, as the French version of the name, “Henri”, is already on list I. Xyklone (talk) 14:12, April 10, 2018 (UTC) I mentioned earlier in the replacement names section that Henri isn't pronounced the same way as Henry even though they're only one letter apart, so it's not out of the question. Henri is pronounced "ahn-ree", while Henry is pronounced "hen-ree". Ryan1000 14:35, April 10, 2018 (UTC) :The Hurricane Committee is currently now voting for which names to be retired, and maybe the replacement names as well today. My final choices are Hayden/Harry, Ivy, Mandy/Molly, and Neil/Nolan. --'Roy25' 23:05, April 11, 2018 (UTC) ::In reply to Raraah above, I would much prefer Henley being Harvey's replacement than some old-fashioned name like Harry. We got to get some newer names on the lists. Hopefully there will be exceptions. I'm honestly not a fan of "Harry" or other old-fashioned names. Also, despite the different pronunciation of Henry vs. Henri, I still highly doubt the NHC would chose such a close name. It would get extremely confusing if there were two separate very notable storms in the same basin with the names "Henry" and "Henri" each. ~ Steve Talk Page 06:22, April 12, 2018 (UTC) According to this tweet, Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate have all been retired and their replacement names are Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel. Nutfield001 (talk) 10:58, April 12, 2018 (UTC) : Yep, it's confirmed, all four names are retired. Harold was my primary choice for Harvey. Idalia and Margot are ok too I suppose, and although I would've personally preferred Noland, Nigel is a good choice for Nate. Looks like 2017 ties 1955, 1995, and 2004 for the second most retired names after one season, after 2005, and it's also the second season on record (after 1955) to have two pairs of consecutive retired names. Ryan1000 11:50, April 12, 2018 (UTC) ::Very interesting name choices by tbe WMO. However, all four of the names deserved to be retired, so I'm glad they were. Owen 12:05, April 12, 2018 (UTC) :::Some nice names they chose. I don't think anyone guesses Idalia as Irma's replacement. --'Roy25' 12:13, April 12, 2018 (UTC) ::::Actually, Idalia was my preferred choice for Irma's replacement. Andros 1337 (talk) 12:26, April 12, 2018 (UTC) :::::Nate managed to avoid the snub, so I'm happy. I like the choices of Harold and Nigel, and the others are okay too. I suppose all we have to wait for now is Ophelia's TCR. Send Help Please (talk) 12:43, April 12, 2018 (UTC) ::::::I'm not sure what to make of the prospect of a hurricane bearing a name one letter away from "maggot." --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:20, April 12, 2018 (UTC) :::::::I think that if a name sounds ugly, people are more likely to run away from the storm than a storm with a beautiful-sounding name. Maybe that name will better scare off anyone in that storm's path. :P ~ Steve Talk Page 19:22, April 12, 2018 (UTC) Interesting facts: Harvey is only the second male H name to be retired in the Atlantic, the first being Hugo in 1989. Nate is second N-named storm to be retired, the first being Noel in 2007. --'Roy25' 16:20, April 12, 2018 (UTC) :Interesting replacement names... Never really expected that they would use Idalia or Margot. I'm glad they didn't snub Nate. ~ Steve Talk Page 19:19, April 12, 2018 (UTC) Btw, here are the pronunciations of the new names: *Harold (hair-old) *Idalia (ee-dal-ya) *Margot (mar-go) *Nigel (nye-jil) Margot is actually a French name FYI, so Maria may have been requested by Dominica. --'Roy25' 22:28, April 12, 2018 (UTC) Wasn't surprised to see the four names go. However, let me tell you some information and my thoughts on the replacement names. Overall, the replacement names sound more European than American (in other words, the English names sound more British/Irish than American). The hurricane centre have been doing this trend pretty much this whole decade. It looks like overall, list 3 seems to be following in the directions of list 5 in terms of the name styles but overall I just don't think it matches the spark and boldness that list 5 possesses. Even in 1983, the names on list 5 seemed edgier than list 3 which were a little oldish at the time. The achievements list 3 have accomplished are remarkable; they didn't start retiring names until 1999 and here they are now; the first naming list of 6 in the Atlantic to have more than half of the names as replacement names (with list 5 trailing behind in 2nd place). It is now a fierce battle between list 3 and list 5 on who gets all their original names retired first, along with who can have the most retired names under their belt. I expected Harold/Harry as the replacement for Harvey. As I said, the US always seem to favour oldish names for storms. They might go a little bit edgier for Humberto's replacement name, if he gets retired next year (or at all). And for god's sake America! It's HAR-old, not HAIR-old! Idalia was a little bit shocking to be fair. Ina and Ivy have been pushed by the US ever since 2003 to be replacement names. I am happy Idalia is the replacement name; sounds more like an EPac name than an Atlantic name. Ina and Ivy are far too dull for my liking, despite Idalia being a little out-of-place on list 3 (better suited to the bold list 5 or the EPac rather than a dainty, oldish list 3). That naming slot (Irene, Irma) had always been used for Continental European names so I am happy a Continental name is used as Irma's replacement rather than an English name. This comes to show that the hurricane centre are running out of I names for hurricanes. Imogen might seem more and more likely as time rolls on and could very well be Imelda's replacement if she goes. It is also likely that a European Overseas Territories, perhaps St Martin (French side) have asked for Idalia for the replacement name (Latin-based). Overall it went: Irene (Greek/Latin-based) --> Irma (Germanic) --> Idalia (Greek/Latin-based). Had it been the UK, it might have been Imogen, or if St Maarten (Netherlands), it might have been Ilse/Inga. The US will push for Ivy or Ina (there's a reason why those two are constantly rejected!) I hurricane names will also certainly become more bizarre as the years go on if they don't use Imogen or the other names mentioned (which is a good thing). Ianthe anyone? (Somewhat like Xanthe (I know someone in real life with this name) but an alternate spelling. Margot was a shocker. I honestly expected a Spanish-y name to replace Maria. This must mean Dominica have requested Margot, as the citizens speak English and a French-based creole language. Margot is also a name used in Germanic countries as well as French and English-speaking countries. I'm pleased with this name too. (Margot Robbie, anyone?) Perhaps the hurricane committee were watching this vidya? I have wanted Nigel for a hurricane name ever since 2015, where I submitted him into the UK Met Office Name-Our-Storms project. He was featured on the 2015-16 storm names list, and here he is now on the 2023 hurricane names list. Yes, because of this guy. Of all names to replace Nate, the hurricane centre have chosen the most British "N" male name of all. As I stated, list 3 and list 5 seem to be in a bitter battle between who can retire all their original names first, who will have the first 4th generation replacement name and who can have the most retired names under their belt. I feel that list 3 is slowly getting rid of its dainty, old-fashioned, "children's storybook character-type" names in favour of a bold, edgy, brash and European image that list 5 portrays. ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 01:35, April 13, 2018 (UTC) : List 2 (which began in 1980) is also up there, both list 2 and list 3 are tied with 12 retired names under their belt thus far. List 2 had Allen, Andrew, Georges, Mitch, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Igor, Tomas, Matthew, and Otto while list 3 now has Floyd, Lenny, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma, Irene, Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate. List 5 still holds the record for the most names axed from it though, with 13 since it began, and there still has yet to be one time list 5 has been used to have no retired names. 1983 had Alicia, 1989 had Hugo, 1995 had Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne, 2001 had Allison, Iris, and Michelle, 2007 had Dean, Felix and Noel, 2013 had Ingrid, and 2019 may have something as well. By contrast, list 4 (this year's naming list) has had only 4 retired names from it (Gilbert, Joan, Keith, and Sandy, although to be fair Gordon should've gotten the boot after 1994). Ryan1000 04:14, April 13, 2018 (UTC) ::Harold sounds old-fashioned, but it's ok. Idalia and Margot... well, those were unexpected. Well, it'll be five more years before they're used again. Meanwhile we have lists 4 and 5 to watch out for. I have an unfortunate feeling list 4 wants to catch up, and list 5 wants to extend its lead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:58, April 15, 2018 (UTC) ::I'd say that all the names that were retired deserved it. I'm okay with Ophelia being excluded, since the damage totals were not that high and only 3 direct deaths occurred (though 51 died because of a wildfire that was exacerbated by Ophelia's circulation). In relation to what KN said, I also have a hunch that List 4 may become List 3 in the long run, of course in terms of the number of retired names. Keep in mind that List 3 was actually the last list to have at least one retiree – List 3 only had retired names after 1999 (Floyd & Lenny). In comparison, Lists 1, 2 and 5 all had retirees after they were first used; these are David & Frederic (1979), Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983). Meanwhile, Lists 4 and 6 had names retired on the second rotation – Gilbert & Joan in 1988 for List 4 and Diana & Klaus in 1990 for List 6. But look at List 3 now, it is now tied with List 2 with the second most number of retirees, thanks to the 2005 and 2017 seasons. The same thing is possible for List 4, although realistically speaking it might take years before it catches up – currently it has four retired names only: Gilbert & Joan (1988), Keith (2000) and Sandy (2012) – but we'll never know. I hope this year won't be catastrophic though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:43, April 16, 2018 (UTC) :: ::I'm pretty happy with all the retired names. Harold is good, Idalia is good, Nigel is good. However, Margot was abnormal. - Bluecaner 23:11, April 17th 2018 (UTC) My favorite replacement name is definitely Nigel. As others have already pointed out, Harold is pretty old fashioned but still okay. Idalia is weird but I still like it, even though I would have picked Inga. Margot is the only replacement name I am not a fan of. Also did anyone here point out 2017's ACE per storm? It's at 13.18 per storm! Impressive, though 2004 still takes the cake.Swirling Magnetar (talk) 23:02, April 18, 2018 (UTC)